An approach to understanding and minimising RISK.

This article examines the logical process, the questions to ask, that one should go through in determining risk. This can be applied to almost any situation.....or the process shortened to get the best outcome.

Martial arts is limited to contingencies where the stuff has already hit the rotating air circulation device (emergency responses) - however, a bit of thought will show us that there are reasons and processes that are clearly visible, thus allowing for recognition and avoidance.

When looking at risk you should do the following:

1. State the risk - Recognition

Why?
Why does that risk exist, and what steps will minimise or eliminate that risk? we identify potential problems in an anticipated risk area to serve as basis for generating avoiding actions. We cannot generate solutions unless we understand the problem.

How?
Ask: What could go wrong in each risk area? What potential for harm is there?

What could go wrong in an underground parking lot at 6PM when I leave work late? How far away are the guards? Are there cameras on me? Can I be heard. Do walls obscure me from the sight of others?

Ask: What is the ultimate effect that you are worried about? Are you concerned about whether or not your jump-spinning dragon kick will work if you are grabbed from behind, or are you getting to the crux of the matter - i.e: not getting into a high risk situation in the first place.

Physical self-defence is not about fighting, it's about not being hurt by violence.

2. Planned Protection - reasonable precautions

Why?
To identify the contributing factors for each anticipated potential problem. Do we simply accept that someone has us around the neck, as we learn in self-defense - or do we realise that a combination of factors contribute to create an environment conducive to a high risk situation? Once we know these factors, we can work to reduce or eliminate the problem.

How?
Look at each potential problem (situation or scenario) and ask:
- What are the likely reasons for this potential problem?
- What can cause the potential problem?

See the problem from the perspective of youself, that of a potential perpetrator, as well as a third party onlooker who observes things you might miss. There ARE reasons why things happen. Find them and prevent or reduce their likelihood of precipitating a high risk situation.

2.2 Avoiding actions (how to avoid the problem)

Why?
To find the most effective way to reduce and/or eliminate the probability of the potential problem (situation) occurring.

Is it more effective to go kicking and punching those three guys who are carrying hidden weapons (which requires the high risk scenario to actually happen, and then have you survive it), or would it be better to recognise and avoid the threat?

Can I get a guard to walk me to my car instead of being far from help on my own in a dark parking area? Could I have moved my car to an area close to guards and exits during work hours while there was safety and activity?

How
2.2.1 Look at reasons and potential problems (situations) and ask:
- What action can you take to reduce the probability of the reason causing the potential problem?
- What action can you take to deal with each reason and potential problem effectively?
Ultimately, how can you eliminate the reason and the potential problem (situation)?

2.2.2 Evaluate viability of each suggested action and ask:
How viable is this action in reducing or eliminating the reason and the potential problem?

2.3 Contingent actions (after the problem has occurred) - repercussions

Why?
To minimise the repercussions of a potential problem and extent of its consequences if it does occur.

Did your training teach you to run from danger, or did it teach you very explicitly to run towards safety? Do you run blindly into a dead end and become trapped while out of breath, or do you run towards lights and people where you can find safety? The closer you are to safety the more likely your pursuers are to abort.

How:
1 Refer to each reason and potential problem and ask:
What actions could you take to deal with the effects of the potential problem if it does occur?
What action will reduce the seriousness of the reasons and the potential problem

2 Evaluate the viability of each suggested action and ask:
How viable is the actions in reducing the seriousness of the reasons and the potential problem.

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